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Diabetes Publish Ahead of Print published online ahead of print March 14, 2007
DOI: 10.2337/db07-0028

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Original Research

The Hemoglobin Glycation Index is Not an Independent Predictor of the Risk of Microvascular Complications in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial

John M. Lachin, Sc.D.1, Saul Genuth, M.D.2, David M. Nathan, M.D.3, and Brandy N. Rutledge, PhD1

1The Biostatistics Center, The George Washington University, Rockville, MD
2Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH
3Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston MA

Correspondence: jml{at}biostat.bsc.gwu.edu

The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial demonstrated that intensive therapy aimed at improved glucose control markedly reduced the risk of diabetes complications compared to conventional therapy. The principal determinant of risk was the history of glycemia. Recently, McCarter et al. have presented analyses of the publicly available DCCT data using their Hemoglobin Glycation Index (HGI) that is computed as the difference between the observed HbA1c and that predicted from the level of blood glucose (Diabetes Care 27: 1259-1264, 2004). In their analyses, the HGI level was a significant predictor of progression of retinopathy and nephropathy in the DCCT, which the authors claimed to support the hypothesis that the biological propensity for glycation, so-called biological variation in glycation, is another mechanism that determines risk of complications. However, we have criticized these analyses and conclusions because, from statistical principles, the glycation index must be positively correlated with the HbA1c level and thus may simply be a surrogate for HbA1c.

Herein we present the statistical properties of the glycation index to document its high correlation with HbA1c. We then replicate the analyses of McCarter et al. using both the HGI and the HbA1c together. Analyses show conclusively that the glycation index is not an independent risk factor for microvascular complications and that the effect of the glycation index on risk is wholly explained by the associated level of HbA1c.

The hemoglobin glycation index should not be used to estimate risk of complications or to guide therapy.



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