Abstract

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is closely correlated to several metabolic syndrome features. We assessed prospectively whether NAFLD predicts future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events among type 2 diabetic individuals, independent of metabolic syndrome features and other classical risk factors. We carried out a prospective nested case-control study in 2,103 type 2 diabetic patients who were free of diagnosed CVD at baseline. During 5 years of follow-up, 248 participants (case subjects) subsequently developed nonfatal coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction and coronary revascularization procedures), ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular death. Using risk-set sampling, 496 patients (control subjects) among those who remained free of diagnosed CVD during follow-up were randomly selected in a 2:1 ratio, matched for age and sex to the case subjects. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking history, diabetes duration, HbA_1c, LDL cholesterol, liver enzymes, and use of medications, the presence of NAFLD was significantly associated with an increased CVD risk (odds ratio 1.84, 95% CI 1.4–2.1, P < 0.001). Additional adjustment for the metabolic syndrome (as defined by National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria) appreciably attenuated, but did not abolish, this association (1.53, 1.1–1.7, P = 0.02). In conclusion, NAFLD is significantly associated with a moderately increased CVD risk among type 2 diabetic individuals. This relationship is independent of classical risk factors and is only partly explained by occurrence of metabolic syndrome.