TABLE 4

Fixed effects for multilevel models of changes over time in log2(IL-1Ra) serum concentrations before diagnosis of type 2 diabetes or the end of follow-up

Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4
Time (per year)0.004 (0.002)*NSNS0.005 (0.002)*
Case (incident type 2 diabetes)0.31 (0.03)0.14 (0.03)0.13 (0.03)0.28 (0.029)
Case × timeNSNSNSNS
Case × time × 2nd period0.052 (0.006)0.051 (0.006)0.045 (0.006)0.013 (0.006)*
BMI (per kg/m2)0.065 (0.002)
Waist circumference (per cm)0.025 (0.001)
  • Data are regression coefficients (SE). Time = continuous variable scaled so that time = 0 at 6 years before diagnosis or the end of follow-up. Case = incident type 2 diabetes case. 2nd period = dummy variable (1 for positive values in the time variable, i.e., later than 6 years before diagnosis or the end of follow-up; 0 for nonpositive values). Trajectories in 335 case subjects with incident type 2 diabetes were compared with those in 2,475 control subjects. Log2(IL-1Ra) was the outcome variable of the multilevel longitudinal modeling, and data were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and study phase. Only models with the lowest information criteria are shown.

  • *P < 0.05;

  • P < 0.0001.