Table 4

NRI based on addition of gene score to FORS, calculated using risk cutoffs of 5, 10, and 15% for 10-year risk

Predicted risk FORSNumber of peopleReclassifiedNet correctly reclassified
≤55–9.910–14.9≥15Increased riskDecreased risk
A. For the whole cohort
Plus externally weighted gene score: no diabetes (n = 18,715.81)1,782.232,138.631.9% (1.2–32.6)
 <510,406.62582.0036.280
 5–9.91,064.521,967.29542.56118.24
 10–14.935.16647.23682.39503.15
 ≥156.5578.89306.281,738.65
Plus externally weighted gene score: incident diabetes (n = 1,121.86)185.96116.496.2% (3.2–9.2)
 <5279.0134.1310
 5–9.936.8081.2055.9715.82
 10–14.9045.9371.2479.04
 ≥15011.7322.03387.96
B. BMI tertile 1 (BMI <24.5)
Plus externally weighted gene score: no diabetes (n = 6,267.82)448.8616.522.7% (1.7–3.7)
 <54,202.1495.9520
 5–9.9540.06834.1232.6563.3
 10–14.9135.2736.0854.9
 ≥1507.1333.06130.18
Plus externally weighted gene score: incident diabetes (n = 147.53)45.889.1324.9% (15.0–34.8)
 <556300
 5–9.96.1321.0626.327.82
 10–14.9032.218.74
 ≥1500013.25
C. BMI tertile 2 (BMI 24.5–27.4)
Plus externally weighted gene score: no diabetes (n = 6,526.66)706.02715.150.1% (−1.0 to 1.3)
 <53,684.61267.5322.950
 5–9.9339.91675.31185.8234.24
 10–14.920.83253.93266.22195.48
 ≥156.5522.5671.37479.35
Plus externally weighted gene score: incident diabetes (n = 308.31)58.2622.9311.5% (5.7–17.2)
 <5112.1717.1300
 5–9.97.1323.6312.256
 10–14.9011.6618.6422.88
 ≥15013.1472.68
D. BMI tertile 3 (BMI ≥27.5)
Plus externally weighted gene score: no diabetes (n = 5,921.35)627.42806.963.0% (1.8–4.3)
 <52,519.87218.5211.330
 5–9.9184.55457.88124.0920.71
 10–14.913.33358.03380.1252.77
 ≥15049.2201.851,129.12
Plus externally weighted gene score: incident diabetes (n = 666.02)81.8284.43−0.4% (−4.2 to 3.4)
 <5110.831410
 5–9.923.5536.5217.42
 10–14.9031.2650.3947.42
 ≥15010.7318.89302.03
  • A. Values are weighted to take into account sampling design, thus accounting for the fact that the number of individuals is not an integer. P value for heterogeneity = 0.002. I2 = 71.1%. NRI (95% CI) = 8.1% (5.0–11.2), no adjustment for study; P = 3.31 × 10−7. NRI (95% CI) = 6.6% (3.6–9.7), results from meta-analysis of individual study results (fixed effects); P = 2.0 × 10−5. NRI (95% CI) = 7.7% (1.7–13.8), results from meta-analysis of individual study results (random effects); P = 0.01. B. NRI (95% CI) = 27.6% (17.7–37.5); P = 4.82 × 10–8. C. NRI (95% CI) = 11.6% (5.8–17.4); P = 9.88 × 10–5. D. Values are weighted to take into account sampling design, thus accounting for the fact that the number of individuals is not an integer. NRI (95% CI) = 2.6% (−1.4 to 6.6); P = 0.20.