TABLE 3

Predictors of type 2 diabetes

VariableHazard rate ratioP
Univariate models
 Female gender1.18 (1.00–1.40)0.055
 Age1.35 (1.28–1.42)<0.0001
 BMI1.96 (1.81–2.11)<0.0001
 2-h glucose1.58 (1.40–1.78)<0.0001
 Gamma globulin1.20 (1.11–1.30)<0.0001
Multivariate model
 Female gender0.95 (0.80–1.13)0.6
 BMI1.73 (1.50–1.87)<0.0001
 2-h glucose1.37 (1.22–1.54)<0.0001
 Gamma globulin1.14 (1.05–1.24)0.0022
  • Data are means (95% CI). Predictors of diabetes in 1,694, subjects who were normal glucose tolerant at baseline (568 incident cases of diabetes). To allow comparison, all predictor variables were standardized to a mean of 0 and SD of 1, apart from gender (male = 0 and female = 1) and age (1 unit increase = 10 years). The multivariate model also contained significant (P < 0.01) linear and quadratic terms for age.