TABLE 6

Performance of type 1 diabetes risk stratification models

Risk stratification model*nType 1 diabetesDiabetes risk
5 years10 years
Model 1
 Category A10022 (37%)12% (6–18)25% (15–35)
 Category B5725 (42%)30% (18–42)59% (41–77)
 Category C2312 (20%)48% (26–70)69% (43–95)
Model 2
 Category A10319 (32%)7% (2–12)20% (11–29)
 Category B3812 (20%)19% (6–32)47% (25–69)
 Category C3019 (32%)54% (34–74)85% (66–100)
 Category D99 (15%)89% (68–100)100%
Model 3
 Category A12224 (41%)8% (3–13)23% (14–32)
 Category B5128 (47%)43% (28–58)69% (52–86)
 Category C77 (12%)86% (60–100)100%
Model 4
 Category A11826 (44%)11% (5–17)27% (17–37)
 Category B3211 (19%)24% (8–40)41% (20–62)
 Category C3022 (37%)63% (45–81)86% (70–100)
  • Data are n (%) and % (95% CI).

  • *

    * Model 1—antibody number: category A = one autoantibody, category B = any two autoantibodies, category C = all three autoantibodies (IAA, IA-2A, GADA); Model 2—antibody titer (IA-2A) and subclass (IA-2A and IAA): category A = none, category B = one, category C = two, category D = all three of high-titer IA-2A, positivity for IgG2 or IgG4 IA-2A, and positivity for IgG2, IgG3 or IgG4 IAA; Model 3—antibody titer (IA-2A and IAA): category A = no high-titer IA-2A or high-titer IAA, category B = high-titer IA-2A or high-titer IAA, category C = high-titer IA-2A and high-titer IAA; Model 4—IA-2A epitopes: category A = IA-2A negative, category B = IA-2A positive but IA-2β autoantibody negative, category C = IA-2β autoantibody positive.