TABLE 3

ORs for 10-year incidence of type 2 diabetes according to HOMA-IR score (insulin resistance) and Sluiter’s Index (β-cell secretion)

Person-yearsDiabetes casesIncidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI)OR (95% CI)P value
Baseline HOMA-IR score*
 Quartile 11,69542.4 (0.1–4.7)1.0
 Quartile 21,687127.1 (3.1–11.1)2.9 (0.9–9.3)0.076
 Quartile 21,688116.5 (2.7–10.3)2.5 (0.7–8.3)0.126
 Quartile 41,6493219.4 (12.7–26.1)8.5 (2.9–25.1)<0.001
Baseline Sluiter’s Index
 Quartile 11,6662213.2 (7.7–18.7)3.0 (1.3–6.9)0.012
 Quartile 21,705127.0 (3.0–11.0)1.5 (0.6–3.8)0.374
 Quartile 31,6751710.1 (5.3–14.9)2.3 (0.9–5.4)0.066
 Quartile 41,67384.8 (1.5–8.1)1.0
  • Unadjusted incidence rates are per 1,000 person-years. ORs and P values are derived from a logistic regression model adjusted for age and sex. The slightly lower number of cases with diabetes is due to missing serum for insulin measurements in a few subjects.

  • *

    * The overall P value is <0.001;

  • reference category;

  • overall P value = 0.008.