TABLE 2

Retinal vascular caliber and 5-year risk of diabetes

Number at riskIncident diabetes
Number (%) eventsModel 1*Model 2Model 3
Retinal arteriolar caliber
    Tertile 1: ≤167 μm25442 (16.5)2.14 (1.13–4.05)2.37 (1.14–4.91)2.21 (1.02–4.80)
    Tertile 2: 167–188 μm30141 (13.6)1.50 (0.86–2.60)1.43 (0.75–2.72)1.34 (0.66–2.69)
    Tertile 3: ≥188 μm24825 (10.1)1.001.001.00
    P for trend0.020.020.04
Retinal venular caliber
    Tertile 1: ≤196 μm26438 (14.4)1.001.001.00
    Tertile 2: 196–216 μm28739 (13.6)1.10 (0.65–1.84)0.71 (0.39–1.30)0.78 (0.42–1.47)
    Tertile 3: ≥216 μm25231 (12.3)1.11 (0.61–2.01)0.96 (0.45–1.73)0.82 (0.40–1.69)
    P for trend0.740.700.58
  • Data are OR (95% CI) unless otherwise indicated.

  • * Adjusted for age, sex, and venular caliber (in models of arteriolar caliber) or arteriolar caliber (in models of venular caliber).

  • Adjusted for variables in model 1 plus FPG, systolic blood pressure, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, smoking status, and retinopathy.

  • Adjusted for variables in model 2 plus BMI, presence of hypertension (instead of systolic blood pressure), glucose tolerance status (NGT vs. IFG/IGT), physical activity, education level, microalbumin-to-creatinine ratio, and fasting insulin concentration.