TABLE 2

Cox proportional hazards modeling predicting progression to diabetes

PlaceboMetforminLifestyleGroups
Hazard ratio (95% CI)PHazard ratio (95% CI)PHazard ratio (95% CI)PP
Model 1
    Baseline adiponectin (per 3 μg/ml)0.77 (0.66–0.89)0.00040.73 (0.60–0.87)0.00050.56 (0.44–0.71)<0.00010.13
Model 2
    Baseline adiponectin (per 3 μg/ml)0.80 (0.70–0.92)0.0010.76 (0.65–0.89)0.00050.64 (0.52–0.79)<0.00010.22
    Weight (per 10 kg)1.12 (1.05–1.18)0.00020.99 (0.92–1.07)0.771.16 (1.08–1.25)<0.00010.006
Model 3
    Baseline adiponectin (per 3 μg/ml)0.79 (0.69–0.91)0.0010.77 (0.66–1.20)0.0010.60 (0.48–0.76)<0.00010.12
    Change in adiponectin (per 1 μg/ml)0.91 (0.82–1.01)0.080.96 (0.85–1.09)0.540.84 (0.72–0.99)0.0370.43
    Baseline weight (per 10 kg)1.10 (1.04–1.17)0.00090.99 (0.91–1.07)0.781.16 (1.07–1.26)0.00020.014
    Change in weight (per 5 kg)0.88 (0.77–1.01)0.070.78 (0.66–0.94)0.0070.66 (0.57–0.77)<0.0010.021
Model 4
    Baseline adiponectin (per 3 μg/ml)0.84 (0.71–0.98)0.030.77 (0.65–0.92)0.0030.63 (0.50–0.79)<0.00010.14
    Change in adiponectin (per 1 μg/ml)0.87 (0.77–0.98)0.020.99 (0.87–1.11)0.840.88 (0.75–1.05)0.150.30
    Baseline weight (per 10 kg)1.07 (1.00–1.14)0.060.99 (0.90–1.08)0.811.19 (1.09–1.31)0.00020.017
    Change in weight (per 5 kg)0.82 (0.69–0.97)0.020.77 (0.63–0.92)0.0060.63 (0.53–0.74)<0.00010.08
    Baseline insulinogenic index (per 0.03 μU/mg)0.44 (0.35–0.55)<0.00010.31 (0.22–0.43)<0.00010.41 (0.30–0.57)<0.00010.20
    Change in insulinogenic index (per 0.03 μU/mg)1.68 (1.42–1.99)<0.00011.88 (1.43–2.48)<0.00011.72 (1.34–2.22)<0.00010.79
    Baseline 1/fasting insulin (per 100 μU/ml)0.63 (0.50–0.78)<0.00010.63 (0.49–0.80)0.00010.76 (0.59–0.98)0.030.46
    Change in 1/fasting insulin (per 100 μU/ml)1.19 (0.96–1.47)0.111.34 (1.10–1.63)0.0031.27 (1.03–1.56)0.020.72
  • Hazard ratios are expressed per ∼SD within the population for each variable. Higher values of inverse fasting insulin correspond to greater insulin sensitivity; higher insulinogenic index values correspond to better β-cell function. Change values are defined as year 1 minus baseline. Group comparisons represent the P value for comparing the contribution of each variable to the model across treatment groups. All models are adjusted for sex, self-reported race/ethnicity, and age at baseline.