TABLE 6

Measures of discrimination and calibration in the Casale Monferrato Study, by selected variables

All-causes mortalityCardiovascular mortality
Discrimination
    C statistic
        Nonmodifiable risk factors (age, sex, and diabetes duration) (model 1)0.7060.717
        Established risk factors (model 2)0.7440.793
        Established risk factors plus AER0.7500.799
        Established risk factors plus AER and CRP0.7560.802
    LR test
        Established risk factors (model 2)LR = 66, df = 11, P < 0.0001LR = 61.85, df = 11, P < 0.0001
        Established risk factors plus AERLR = 10.76, df = 1, P = 0.001LR = 4.69, df = 1, P = 0.03
        Established risk factors plus AER and CRPLR = 9.94, df = 1, P = 0.002LR = 3.03, df = 1, P = 0.08
    Bayes information criterion
        Nonmodifiable risk factors (age, sex, and diabetes duration) (model 1)4,021.241,693.40
        Established risk factors4,036.781,713.18
        Established risk factors plus AER4,033.451,715.90
        Established risk factors plus AER and CRP4,030.931,720.29
Calibration
    Grønnesby and Borgan test
    Nonmodifiable risk factors (age, sex, and diabetes duration) (model 1)P = 0.28P = 0.10
    Established risk factorsP = 0.44P = 0.21
    Established risk factors plus AERP = 0.42P = 0.27
    Established risk factors plus AER and CRPP = 0.10P = 0.28